نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار مؤسسه پژوهشی حکمت و فلسفه ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلى این نوشته واکاوى مفهوم علّیت تاریخى (علّیت میان رویدادهاى تاریخى) است. از میان سه نظریة علّیتى که به اختصار بررسى مى‌شوند، نظریة شرطى‌هاى خلاف واقع مناسبت بیشترى براى کاربرد در حوزة تاریخ دارد. کاربرد این نظریه در تاریخ، ما را به سمت استفاده از ادعاهاى موجهاتى و سرانجام تاریخ مجازى خواهد کشاند. پس از گزارش مختصرى دربارة تاریخ مجازى، به بررسى دو مورد از مهم‌ترین ملاک‌هاى پیشنهاى براى نگارش تاریخ مجازى خواهیم پرداخت. استفاده از قوانین اگرچه ملاکى قابل پذیرش است، اما دامنة قوانین قابل کاربرد در تاریخ بسیار محدودتر از دامنة شرطى‌هاى خلاف واقع تاریخى است. ملاک دیگر (اصل حداقل بازنویسى)، در شکل فعلى خود ناقص است و نیاز به قرائتى کل‌گرایانه دارد. در ادامه به بررسی رابطة تاریخ مجازی و موجبیت تاریخی خواهیم پرداخت. نشان خواهیم داد که حداقل برخی از خوانش‌های موجبیت تاریخی با امکان وجود تاریخ مجازی سازگار است. در بخش آخر، به این نکته خواهیم پرداخت که طبق پاره‌ای تحقیقات، ادعاهای علّی تاریخى تا حد زیادى تابع ایدئولوژى مورّخ است. این نکته ما را به سوی شرطی عمومی برای عینیت تاریخ مجازی رهنمون خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Historical Causation and Virtual History

نویسنده [English]

  • Hossein Sheykh Rezaee

Assistant Professor of Iranian Research Institute of Wisdom and Philosophy

چکیده [English]

The main theme of this paper is the notion of historical causation (causal relationships between historical events). Among three causal theories that will be considered briefly, the counterfactual analysis has the best position to be applied in the field of history. Using this analysis needs to have a clear understanding of modal claims in history. After some remarks on the nature and importance of virtual history, two proposed criteria of writing "what if …" history will be discussed. Although the first one, the necessity of connecting historical counterfactual claims to well-established laws, is acceptable, the domain of applicable well-established laws in history is much narrower than the domain of historical counterfactuals.
Regarding the second criterion, minimal-rewrite rule, it will be argued that this rule in its current form is incomplete and needs some holistic components to be added. The next issue is whether virtual history is compatible with historical determinism or not. My argument is that at least one kind of determinism (structural determinism) is compatible with virtual history.
Finally, the role of ideology in running historical counterfactual scenarios will be discussed. To avoid subjectivity, we need to avoid ideological judgments in modal claims as much as possible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Historical Causation
  • Counterfactual Conditionals
  • Virtual History
  • Minimal-Rewrite Rule
  • Ideology

منابع

1-       Ben-Menahem, Y., "Historical Contingency", Ratio (new series), 10, 2: 99-107, 1997.
2-       Berlin, I., Four Essays on Liberty, London: OxfordUniversity Press, "Historical Inevitability", PP. 51-81, 1969.
3-       Bradley, J. & Cowley, R., What If? 2: Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, Penguin Group, 2001.
4-       Bulhof, J., "What If? Modality and History", History and Theory, 38, 2: 145-168, 1999.
5-       Bunzl, M., "Counterfactual History: A User’s Guide", American Historical Review, 109: 845-858, 2004.
6-       Carr, E. H., What is History?, London: Macmillian, 1961.
7-       Cartwright, N., "Causation: One Word, Many Things", Philosophy of Science, 71: 805-19, 2004.  
8-       Cohen, M., Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments, Oxford: Blackwell Publishing, 2005.
9-       Cowley, R., What Ifs? of American History: Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, Penguin Group, 2004.
10-    _____ , R. 2005, What If? 2: Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, The Berkley Publishing Group, 2005.
11-    _____ , R. & Ambrose, S. E. (eds.), What If?: The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine what Might Have Been : Essays, G.P. Putnam's Sons, 1999.
12-    De May, T. & Weber, E., "Explanation and Thought Experiments in History", History and Theory, 42, 1: 28-38, 2003.
13-    Dowe, P., Physical Causation, New York: CambrdigeUniversity Press, 2000.
14-    Fair, D., "Causation and the Flow of Energy", Erkenntnis, 14: 219-250, 1979.
15-    Gaddis, J. L., The Landscape of History: How Historians Map the Past, OxfordUniversity Press, 2002.
16-    Hempel, K. G., "The Function of General Laws in History", Journal of Philosophy, 39: 35-48, 1942.
17-    _____ , K. G., Philosophy of Ntural Science, Prentice-Hall, 1966.
18-    Hume, D., An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, ed. L. A. Selby-Bigge, Oxford: OxfordUniversity Press, 1962.
19-    Lebow, R. N., "Counterfactual Thought Experiments: A Necessary Research Tool", 2001.
<http://www2.hu-berlin.de/gesint/lehre/2002_2003/counterfact/lebow_ch2.pdf>
20-    Lewis, D., "Causation", Journal of Philosophy, 70: 556–67, 1973.
21-    _____ , D., "Causation as Influence", Journal of Philosophy, 97: 182–97, 2000.
22-    Nagel, E., "Determinism in History", Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 20, 3: 291-317, 1960.
23-    Tetlock, P. E., "Close-Call Counterfactuals and Belief-System Defenses: I Was Not Almost Wrong But I Was Almost Right", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 3: 639-652, 1998.
24-    _____ , P. E., "Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?", American Journal of Political Science, 43, 2: 335-366, 1999.
25-    _____ , P. E. & Belkin, A., "Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological and Psychological Perspectives", in Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives, PrincetonUniversity Press, PP. 3-38, 1996.
26-    _____ , P. E. & Henik, E., "Theory- Versus Imagination- Driven Thinking about Historical Counterfactuals: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?", in Mandel, D. R. & Hilton, D. J. & Catellani, P. (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking, Routledge, 2005.
27-    _____ , P. E, Lebow, R. N., "Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning", The American Political Science Review, 95, 4: 829-843, 2001.
28-    _____ , P. E, Lebow, R. N. & Parker, G. (eds.), Unmaking the West: "What-If?" Scenarios That Rewrite World History, University of Michigan Press, 2006.
29-    _____ , P. E. & Visser P. S., "Thinking about Russia: Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures", British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 2: 173-196, 2000.
30-    Thompson, E. P., The Poverty of Theory and Other Essays, New York: Monthly Reviw Press, 1978.
 
 
CAPTCHA Image